It’s unfortunate to see Microsoft (along with Adobe, etc) expanding into Ads. If nothing else, they could really differentiate and join forces with Apple from privacy standpoint to oppose Google, Amazon and Facebook.
Instead, “Intellisense with AI now available on VS Code” is Microsoft’s nice way of saying “We harvest the shit out of your data”. Ah, like a true Ad company. Don’t get me started on Windows 10 telemetry.
I really believe that Apple’s bet on privacy will pay off well in the long term. They’re different companies (Apple is selling hardware) but boy they could have gone into Ads with a MASSIVE user base but they chose to limit Ads in the App Store. It would have been huge expansion opportunity but they didn’t pursue it. And it will pay off as privacy awareness spreads and Microsoft could join them as operating system providers.
> “Intellisense with AI now available on VS Code” is Microsoft’s nice way of saying “We harvest the shit out of your data”.
What? The IntelliCode description says that "Contextual recommendations are based on practices developed in thousands of high quality, open-source projects on GitHub each with high star ratings.". I'm not clear on how you think Microsoft will harvest data from doing this - much less how it is related to ads.
There is telemetry built into VS Code that you can turn off, but it is turned on by default. There is no way to know how they're using that data. Microsoft also collects data on Office365 platform and even local Office 2019 installs.
I was trying was to make a tongue in cheek point, rather than specifically digging into exact methods of how they collect data. You may be right but it is besides the core issue we are discussing here.
We don't do any training on your data. Telemetry is largely for feature use tracking (eg we should really do better around this component, everyone is using it). There is absolutely no ads overlap at all. Literally none.
A big tech company harvesting extensive user data by default and saying it's ok because "Trust us, we don't do anything bad with it" is not a compelling argument these days. Even if it's true (and that's a big if), that says nothing about what Microsoft will do with the data tomorrow, or the next day.
It's on by default, but literally the first thing we ask you, actively, is about giving us feedback and let you turn it off right then. It's not remotely hidden.
I totally understand, though about trust. We've been asking users for feedback for 20+ years, I hope we've shown ourselves to be good actors!
> We've been asking users for feedback for 20+ years, I hope we've shown ourselves to be good actors!
Not sure about the Azure team (since my experience with Azure is limited to a one-off project that required a SQL Server instance to test compatibility with some client's legacy DB, plus some very recent dabbling in VS Code and Azure Data Studio), but whichever team runs Windows nowadays, for example, hasn't exactly "shown [them]selves to be good actors". Or is preinstalling Candy Crush even on "Professional" versions of Windows 10 considered being a "good actor" by today's standards?
(Sure, even the first versions of Windows had games preinstalled, but those were first-party instead of third-party, they ostensibly existed to help users learn how to use a mouse, and they didn't plaster themselves front-and-center on my Start menu like seedy massage parlors in a Bangkok red light district)
Needless to say, "we've been siphoning your data for multiple decades, so you can trust us to keep doing so even though we're actively betraying that trust at this very moment" is cold comfort at best. I would hope that the New™ and Improved™ Microsoft™ would at least have some self-awareness about that.
I'm sure your intentions are good and pure. I hope they stay that way. I have no way of knowing whether or not they will, and historical precedent says they probably won't. It shouldn't be surprising that I and plenty of other tech-savvy users would take such claims of trustworthiness with a baseball-sized grain of salt.
If we did more than that, we'd be liable for huge fines/jail! We have never "siphoned your data for multiple decades" - we only collect WHEN and ONLY WHEN you let us.
The way that our intentions haven't changes is because we are legally required to tell you if they do!
I know a lot of people like to claim that the US is like the EU, but this is the first time I've heard someone claim that the US is literally in the EU.
Less sarcastically: the GDPR is not applicable in the US, so hiding behind that does me no good. If your only defense is "but the GDPR doesn't let us do that!", then that's deeply concerning and only proves my point.
@ThIronYuppie Let me say first of all that I really appreciate your sincerity and belief in the Goodness of the company that you work for. The issue is not insincerity, but:
* a lack of trust in corporations in today's economic and political climate and
* the skyrocketing growth of the online advertising business, which has made user data quite literally the gold mines of the digital age
The incentives today are very very well aligned for a corporation to sell user data. Even if a company may mostly be made of good people, without explicitly written contracts or declarations of any kind, a Company can change internal policies rather quickly. Maybe there will be a manager who sees the selling of that data as a way to boost profit and rise within the company. Maybe the company sells that division along with their data.
You say the issue is not insincerity but I beg to differ. Microsoft has never been particularly sincere about the reasons it does the things it does.
It has been a deceitful bully of a company for a long time.
Indeed, one of the main reasons why there is so little trust in corporations is because they are so insincere, anti-consumer and lacking in any kind of social conscience.
I totally get it. We're a big company, and you're right to question EVERYTHING. All I can say is we'll try and earn your trust every day and laws like GDPR make sure that we're on the hook to do so. Put another way - we CANNOT change this without EXPLICITLY notifying you.
> I totally understand, though about trust. We've been asking users for feedback for 20+ years, I hope we've shown ourselves to be good actors!
I don't believe you have, sorry (Microsoft I mean, not you specifically). I get the impression Microsoft is the same company it always was, only now it's better at convincing the gullible that it is on their side.
That Windows 10 update prompt for previous Windows versions were obnoxious and downright deceitful, making the 20+ years old traditional 'close window' X in the corner of the window actually download the update instead of doing what users expect it to do.
That's before we even get onto the subject of Windows 10's draconian privacy policies and use of dark patterns all over the OS designed to get people to disable their privacy settings.
Of course, even if they don't fall for tricks like coloring the 'privacy customisation options' link during installation a slightly different colour of blue than the background of the window to make it deliberately hard to read, they will still likely have all their privacy options reset and have previously removed crapware like Candy Crush added all over again in a forced update.
I'm on a Pro version of Windows 10 and I can't even disable the telemetry and constant phoning home every time I launch an application and or encounter a problem (that I absolutely do not need help with) with something I'm running.
I could understand this crap with the Home version. Not on Pro which I fully expected to have a degree of control over like I did with Win7 pro.
As a result of all this, Microsoft finally made my shit list after decades of shady behaviour and anti-competitive business practices and I won't be buying or using anything by them going forward.
Hell I even started PC gaming on Linux, that's how much I dislike the things Microsoft does.
I'm a little late to this party, but I couldn't agree more (except that I'm in the fortunate position of making decisions about my businesses, so we can decide not to use Windows 10 at all for much the same reasons).
We also don't use VS Code at all, for one simple reason: we tried to determine what the privacy policy actually was, and we couldn't. In particular, there appeared to be wording among the various indirectly linked documents that implied Microsoft might at some point upload our source code without our knowledge or consent, with no guarantees and nothing to indicate how it would or might then be used.
Combine that with an organisation that has a recent deliberate strategy of pushing updates whether wanted or not, collecting data whether volunteered or not, and attempting to coerce or deceive users into accepting those things whether it's in their interest to do so or not, and unfortunately while certain people who work for Microsoft and comment here may have no ill intent, it simply isn't safe to trust the company as a whole with the same benefit of the doubt.
Good news! The privacy policy is specifically listed in our FAQ on our website
Unfortunately, if you go down that rabbit hole (which we did before) it follows various redirect links and ends up at https://privacy.microsoft.com/en-us/privacystatement, which is a generic document that changes frequently and includes by reference ambiguous additional product-specific documents that may or may not exist.
What you need here is an absolutely clear, unambiguous statement to the effect that you will never under any circumstances upload our source code or other proprietary data to any external system without our explicit opt-in. It's really that simple. Otherwise, I'm afraid those of us working under commercial confidentiality agreements or other legal controls are just going to run away.
Again, to reiterate, we would never collect data if you didn't consent. It's the law!
Perhaps you could explain to me how to turn off the telemetry in Windows 10 then? Or for that matter how consent was obtained for the telemetry that was silently added to earlier Windows versions after release by anyone who installed Microsoft's recommended updates?
I appreciate that your personal intentions may be honest and good here, but the simple fact is that your organisation has a very clear, very bad track record at this in recent years, and its senior leadership has not only been entirely unretentant about that policy despite widespread criticism but actively doubled down on it. Anything Microsoft does will naturally be contaminated by that history now, unless as a minimum it makes a clear, legally actionable statement and/or imposes verifiable technical measures to guarantee different behaviour.
VS Code collects usage data and sends it to Microsoft to help improve our products and services. Read our privacy statement to learn more.
If you don't wish to send usage data to Microsoft, you can set the telemetry.enableTelemetry setting to false.
From File > Preferences > Settings (macOS: Code > Preferences > Settings), search for telemetry.enableTelemetry and uncheck the setting. This will silence all telemetry events from VS Code going forward. Telemetry information may have been collected and sent up until the point when you disable the setting.
That's ALL telemetry. So, the second you don't actively opt-in, we collect no telemetry data in VS Code AT ALL.
You'll also want to disable crash reporting:
VS Code collects data about any crashes that occur and sends it to Microsoft to help improve our products and services. Read our privacy statement to learn more.
If you don't wish to send crash data to Microsoft, you can set the telemetry.enableCrashReporter setting to false.
It's that simple. Absolutely nothing - and CERTAINLY no user code (which we never collected in the first place.
Thank you for the further response. I'm not sure whether this is your area at work or you're just trying to help here, but as further feedback in return, that reads like an opt-out scheme to me. I'm also immediately struck that this relies on a setting (which Microsoft products have a history of changing when installing later updates) and that we still haven't resolved whether VS Code has its own separate privacy policy (which is mentioned as a possibility in the generic Microsoft privacy statement we were discussing before, without any specific indication of how to determine the answer definitively or where it would be found if it exists).
So again, while I appreciate that individuals involved may have honest intentions and be trying to help here, this is still a very long way from the kind of clear, unambiguous official statement that would make me trust any Microsoft product enough to use it in the current data-harvesting, forced-updates climate. I have specific legal obligations to clients when dealing with their source code and the proprietary knowledge implicit within it, and there's no way I can take this sort of documentation to my lawyer and say "Can I use this?".
For base model suggestions, which are open source or .NET types and members, we capture whether you selected an IntelliCode suggestion and log the name of the suggestion. Microsoft uses the data to monitor the quality of the base model. For custom models, we capture whether you selected an IntelliCode suggestion but do not log the names of your user-defined types or methods.
Thanks
Mark Wilson-Thomas
Program Manager Visual Studio IntelliCode
(Disclaimer, work at Microsoft. Not on VS Code.) I expect you should be able to run Fiddler or Wireshark or similar traffic sniffers to see the requests.
At least in theory, it shouldn't be necessary to go to such an extreme, considering that VS Code is ostensibly FOSS and thus readily auditable for this sort of thing: https://github.com/Microsoft/vscode
This assumes, of course, that y'all aren't doing any weird code-injecting funny business when packaging it up for installation :)
We need to stop relying on the assertions Big Tech make about themselves, and work towards regulation.
What most viewers saw during the Facebook congressional hearing was woefully out of touch, forgive me for using this phrase “old white guys” questioning Mark with many facepalm-able moments. But the house hearing, which includes 40 representatives from the Millennial generation, who grew up on tech, asked much better questions. It just got swallowed up by the news cycle because the Manafort Raid was happening at the same time as hearing about the Cambridge Analytica scandal was occuring.
All of this is still new. Banking, Finance, Real Estate, those are all well regulated at this point and arguably much more sophisticated or complex. The situation we have now with the Googles, Amazons, Microsoft, Facebooks of the world packaging up our metadata, combining it with other third party data, training AI, etc is all new, and those who are knowledgeable about it are just now making it into congress, so I am optimistic we will start to see real regulation on these shameful business practices soon.
Roger McNamee had an excellent conversation on the Sam Harris podcast recently about all of this. It was a very good conversation and one I highly recommend listening to.
If you can't trust Microsoft employees saying it, then it's most likely you won't be able to trust anything short of running Wireshark to verify the outgoing data, no?
If in the EU you could ask for all collected data under the GDPR. [ed: all personal data - so there might be some set of aggregated, non-identifable data that they might not be required by gdpr to allow insight to - that is however a pretty high bar to clear (and intertwines with being allowed to sample / collect that data in the first place, informed concent, defaulting to not collecting data (opt-in) etc]
Nah, it's more like automating you away once significant part of your coding process is replicated by AI in the future and then selling your replacement/virtual clone to your employer at a lower cost :-P I guess at some point there will be a replacement/clone store and any company could add 'mhermher'-style coding to their own projects by purchasing clone there. Internally ranked and price exponentially rising the more capable replacement is (e.g. ACM ICPC winning replacements will cost millions).
I'm a Windows desktop user, XP, 7, and 10. That's what I want, a DESKTOP. I don't have a smart phone. I may soon buy a $20 mobile flip phone. I have nothing from Apple.
For my own general purpose computing, I want Windows desktop especially with its backwards compatibility.
For business, I'm doing a startup which for the users is a Web site, and I wrote the code on XP and will run it on 7 as my server until I switch over to Windows Server.
I've done nothing with Unix or Linux.
In the past 10 years, I've typed in about 400,000 lines of text as software, with about 100,000 program language statements. For the compiled code, it's essentially all Visual Basic .NET with ASP.NET for Web pages and ADO.NET for getting to SQL Server database. I like VB.NET. I did my startup Web pages with ASP.NET -- seems fine to me although they are my first Web pages and I;m no Web page expert. E.g., I wrote no JavaScript although ASP.NET writes a little for me which is optional.
For a cloud, for now I'd be concerned about cost, startup time, and security. Later I'll be concerned about security.
I tried Visual Studio for a few minutes and gave up on it. I've used no integrated development environment and have no desire to.
My two most important tools are my favorite text editor KEdit and my favorite scripting language Rexx. I type my code into KEdit and have a lot of KEdit macros to help me with the code. The code for my Web site is about 100,000 lines of typing and about 24,000 programming language statements -- I had no trouble debugging and never wanted anything like Visual Studio.
I wouldn't use Visual Studio for free -- too much botheration for too little need.
When I looked at Visual Studio, I could find no reasonable, usable, competent documentation, and no way do I want to take out months to figure out like a puzzle and document Visual Studio for my own use. E.g., Microsoft keeps talking about "intelisense" as if I should already know what that meant and would like it. Of course, I can't look up intellisense in a dictionary, and absolutely, positively, with feet locked four feet down in reinforced concrete will Microsoft refuse to document, describe, and explain what they mean by intellisense. It is as if their gibberish not in any dictionary has self-evident meaning and value -- it has neither. Grotesque, outrageous, inarticulate, incompetent, sick-o communications.
It turns out, ASP.NET is super easy to debug -- just give the .ASPX file to a Web browser and let ASP code do its things.
For Office and e-mail, I use my legal copy of Office 2003 with Outlook. Now that I have good, extensive notes on how to adjust the settings and options on Outlook, I can do the setups in an hour instead of the several days as before; it's fine. There are some improvements I could think of, but I doubt that Microsoft would be interested. It might be that I could program the improvements with the old VBA which might be able to read and parse an Outlook PST file, but so far I've never tried VBA and when I did want to try it didn't have a copy. For Excel, I use it to draw simple graphs and otherwise regard it as worthless -- I'd much rather write code in Rexx, VB.NET, Fortran, PL/I, etc. and then use Excel to draw the plots. My understanding is that now there is much better graph drawing software, likely with API's, or better API's, than Excel.
For high quality word whacking, I use D. Knuth's original TeX and love it. I hate Word -- used it some, got okay with it, but hate it.
Lessons: To me, for my personal computing and for business, I want the full power of a good desktop computer. I place high value on backward compatibility, e.g., back to Office 2003, an old Watcom Fortran, an old IBM OSL (Optimization Subroutine Library) to be called from Watcom Fortran, KEdit, Open Object Rexx, etc. For business and software development, VB.NET is fine.
Far and away my greatest gripe with computing, the computer industry, and Microsoft is documentation -- on average, the quality of the documentation is awful. To me, the biggest problem in my startup, by far, is poor documentation. Broadly the poor documentation has commonly taken me 100-200 hours to do things I should have been able to do in one hour. So, I DO write my own notes and then AM able to do the stuff in one hour. The bad documentation is close to killing my startup. Long since I should have been sending six figures a year to Microsoft for licenses on their software, and the main reason I'm not is their documentation. E.g., it took me two weeks of full time mud wrestling JUST to find a connection string that worked with SQL Server -- should have taken 10 minutes. Recently I spent 80 hours full time getting simple file sharing, as a first time user, between my 7 and 10 systems. I wrote up notes for myself that will solve the problem for any first time user in less than an hour. I posted the notes on TechNet. Responses from others were awful, e.g., kept talking about Workgroups and Homegroups and some Windows password tool, ALL of which are just irrelevant down to next to useless. Apparently nearly no one still actually knows how to use the simple, well designed, command line NET commands to set up first time user file sharing. The old NET documentation is also awful, gets a grade of flat F in just simple Bachus-Nauer syntax notation 101 and totally omits anything about semantics, meaning, usage, understanding, security, consequences, timeouts, etc. I had so much trouble with even simple things with SQL Server that eventually I got help, really simple answers, from some high up SQL Server executive.
To me, the most serious problem blocking information technology, computing, Microsoft, and my work is BAD DOCUMENTATION.
When Microsoft learns how to describe their work, then I'll start to consider if they are a competent, functioning company with a bright future.
I'm pretty sure these approaches were considered AI from the very start. If anything, algorithms stop being referred to as intelligent over time, as our expectations of what is possible grow.
> "Contextual recommendations are based on practices developed in thousands of high quality, open-source projects on GitHub each with high star ratings."
Wait, what? Is there a way to opt out of that in GitHub? I don't want their AI to scan my code.
Realistically, since most of my GH code is Common Lisp with few stars, I doubt it's looking anyway, but I'd like to make sure.
I'm sure it's covered in their TOS, but as a (still) paying GitHub customer I don't want them to do that with my repos.
Should have nothing to do with github and everything to do with you putting your code on the internet with a permissive license. Google or Eclipse could do this too (and I expect they do, since it's the best corpus of code available).
I disagree with the paren't sentiment but I think they raise an interesting point: is/should there be a license that says: you can read/use/modify {this} but you cannot use it as a training data for the AI.
{this} can be code or text or an image or any other content.
Same here. But we should keep in mind that there is no guarantee that their stance stays the same, and they pretty much only answer to money and nothing/nobody else.
The thing with privacy stance is that it is primarily based on trust. If Microsoft now goes into privacy centric company, nothing makes me trust them as much as I trust them going back into selling ads after 5 years.
That’s why I think whatever trust solution we come up with will have a heavy audit component to it. I know everyone here hates SOX compliance, but the entire goal of SOX was to increase investors’ trust in financial reporting in the wake of the Enron accounting scandal. And it worked.
SaaS companies already make ridiculous margins. Applying a sensible regulatory framework around privacy and data usage auditing would add overhead to be sure, but I’m also sure software margins will cover it.
Yeah, Apple had the foresight to see the next big thing in tech was going to be privacy. But I think it’s reflective of a larger societal problem: we don’t know who to trust anymore. It seems like every company is trying to scam its users, so Apple is betting that there is a valuable segment of the market willing to pay a premium to do business with a brand that has no ulterior motives past selling you a device at a high markup, and maybe some value-add services.
To be fair, this has always been a problem — I think the recent failings of the historical trust model are due to better information rather than any increase in exploitative behavior. But prior to the smartphone era, trust was a fuzzy, emotional problem where a customer’s trust in a brand could be influenced by marketing alone. Today it is an explicit, quantifiable problem where users are willing to vote with their feet.
What companies are we bestowing authority upon? Do those companies’ business models truly have our best interests at heart? What guarantees do users have that their trust won’t be violated? I firmly believe that whoever can solve these questions to the market’s satisfaction will own the future.
Correct, it is also important to recognize that they could have exploited their user base (500 million iPhones sold) to serve ads or collect data and sell it - that is a real business expansion idea. "They don't need to make money as a hardware company" sidesteps the investor-company relationship: Public companies are obligated to expand under investor pressure, but the strategy is always in the hands of the executives. Apple didn't succumb under the pressure.
I wouldn’t say it’s “just” a benefit of their business model; it’s the entire point. I don’t see Samsung making any of these moves.
Any good product organization (and Apple is one of the best) focuses on their customer. We all know that. But Apple goes further and takes their customers’ side — the iTunes Music Store was an absolute disaster for the recording industry but a huge boon for the consumer (and, of course, iPod sales).
Apple is only in a position to do this effectively because they have such a large and loyal customer base. They have a large and loyal customer base because they have consistently driven innovation in personal computing while making high-quality devices that people are willing to pay a premium for. Why would they betray that loyalty?
Apple’s business model is simple and easy to understand. I look at their balance sheet and see where the money comes from: hardware sales to consumers. You can do the same with Amazon and Google too — which shows you why their definition of “customer focus” is so different from Apple’s.
I agree 100%. Everything from hardware level encryption, localized machine learning, face-id(and Touch ID), T2 Chip, Secure Enclave, afps, secure vault, etc are all not needed for “normal business” but are focusing specifically on privacy as a differentiating factor.
Out of many large corporations the only company I trust is Apple. I’m happy to pay more. I’m happy to sit through their repair bullshit. I trust their motives.
It's also a conscious decision in the way they build their products. If they wanted to, they could also continue being a hardware company and add data-mining/ads on top of that -- but they choose not to.
From the cloud perspective Azure has a better privacy pitch than AWS has.
Amazon is currently expanding into markets at such a rate everyone is afraid their market will be next. Microsoft currently is staying in their lane. If someone is going to be invading my privacy I'd rather it not be a direct competitor.
Not always. The devices at the ISPs are basically a local cache. They don’t have devices at every ISP and all of their content isn’t on every device.
But that’s really neither here nor there. I doubt very seriously that even if Amazon (AWS not the retail side) was snooping on customer data - which I believe they would be fool to do so - they couldn’t inspect the video stream to know what was playing where.
Encryption doesn't hide everything. For example, Amazon could estimate the geographical location of everyone watching Netflix and use that information to determine optimal billboard advertisement locations for it's advertisement campaign.
> but boy they could have gone into Ads with a MASSIVE user base but they chose to limit Ads in the App Store
But they still with with Ads. And they've tried Ads in the past, with iAds. That they failed doesn't mean they didn't try, and doesn't mean they won't try again. Apple is all about advertising. Now, we can discuss how they handle privacy related to ads, but let's not pretend Apple is in no way a contributor to ad ecosystem.
If people don't pay for software maintenance, e.g. Windows 10 updates, what do you do? Ads, harvest data...
Windows (likely) always could offer better privacy for a fee. You can buy a Windows computer incl. services at a price point you can only dream of Apple hardware.
Facebook/Inst/Wapp and Google show that the majority of people go with 'Geiz ist geil' (cheap is cool), privacy be damned. Awareness doesn't necessarily lead to actions (read: payments).
If I'm interpreting you correctly, you're making two points, and neither of them are entirely correct:
1) Microsoft had telemetry in Windows Phone.
2) The security/privacy mindset hasn't died alongside Windows Phone. I think it's actually gotten stronger,
GDPR has been the biggest forcing function.
[disclosure: MS employee, but my employer wants me to state that this is my opinion, not that of Microsoft]
I also paid for the Windows Pro license, but I meant the continued maintenance and free (bi)yearly updates. IIRC the license was around 50 € this cannot cover the full cost for the (let's say) 5+ years computer lifetime support.
With the absence of telemetry, how do you know Linux is doing just fine? (specifically in the desktop world, not server world).
Microsoft has an interest in knowing how well Windows is doing, and Windows has lived in a world both with and without telemetry. It was way, way harder to gauge success prior to telemetry, and it was also much more frustrating for the user to communicate their problems. I don't think Windows could have stayed in the pre-telemetry engineering world and maintained its position as a competitive desktop OS.
I ask this mostly out of ignorance, I've got experience using Linux, but I really don't know what the dev-loop is like for active engineers.
Windows became the world's top desktop OS without telemetry. Please stop this "we harvest your data to make our product better for you" excuse because it is offensive for us customers. Don't put it on us users. We did not ask for that. Just say that it's because everyone is doing, or to better profit or whatever unethical reasons you have.
What does telemetry have to do with the windows 10 start menu becoming a container for ads and not trivially removable partnered apps?
There's nothing wrong with transparent, privacy-respecting, and configurable telemetry, but what windows 10 does is none of those. Trying to describe it as something that's good for the users comes off a bit disingenuous.
> I don't think Windows could have stayed in the pre-telemetry engineering world
You (Microsoft) shouldn't enforce people to send telemetry. Ask kindly and I suppose you'd get a better response. (VSC is a good example how it could/should be done)
> With the absence of telemetry, how do you know Linux is doing just fine?
I look at Linux-focused communities on Reddit, Hacker News, etc (there’s always a good rant about Linux’s shortcomings).
But that would, you know, mean you actually need to pay competent people that can understand the discourse and engage with the community, something you guys clearly don’t give a shit about (have you ever seen the Microsoft Support forums? It’s a disaster).
> Linux seems to be doing just fine keeping software maintained without ads or harvesting data.
Ugh. I am quite proficient with tech stuff, but last month trying Ubuntu 18.04 LTS on my desktop left me pretty disappointed. A hard no-no for anyone non-technical: the graphical login did not work until I manually switched to the text terminal and installed the latest NVidia driver (Titan V).
And even now one of my screens does not wake up until I toggle it on/off.
100% agree. Linux is great for developers or server admins but when it comes to an average Joe from the office,it is 20 years behind windows. It may look similar,it may feel a little similar but it is not.Most of the apps are complete shit, it is difficult to do things unless you an admin or technical user and etc. My job is split in half- one side is technical and I'd be happy with Linux, the other is a business user and this side will never switch to Linux,or not until all the MS products are ported to Linux.
A bit a more friendly reply would be appreciated.. What is toxic exactly?
Linux (the Ubuntu desktop which I use) might do fine, but it needs to be financed also, developers need a salary. (Some) people donate, there seem to be 'some arrangements with e.g. Amazon' and - I suppose - the main funds currently come from Canonical using server edition income.
Virtually everyone who owns a cell phone that's not an iPhone. Android apps tend to be ad-supported, though, so not sure if that really helps the point.
There's also the TVs, set top boxes, refrigerators, and cars (among many other consumer-facing devices) that run Linux (which completely displaced Windows CE).
Linux is the kernel, though (and debatably also the application API/ABI). That's all it is. At the risk of sounding like some Richard Stallman wannabe, your complaints should be directed at GNU (or perhaps GNOME or KDE).
Trying to argue "well those don't count because they're not real Linux" is 1) blatantly false and 2) a textbook case of a No True Scotsman fallacy. Linux is Linux, regardless of which userland happens to be running on it.
No worries. It's worth clarifying specifically because of how many user-facing software stacks are indeed built on top of Linux.
Still, I feel like the only reason the Year of the Linux Desktop hasn't "arrived" is because we keep moving the goalposts on what "Linux Desktop" means (and/or maintain an unnecessarily strict definition of it), probably because we do mean "GNU Desktop" or "GNOME Desktop" or "KDE Desktop" or "X11 Desktop" or something along those lines when we say "Linux Desktop".
Would you count ChromeOS as a desktop Linux? If not, why?
It hadn't crossed my mind when I wrote the post because I was in a thread about Windows (so in my mind it was desktop Windows vs a "linux distro" like Ubuntu, Cent, Debian, etc).
But I suppose ChromeOS should count too since it runs on laptops and desktop computers.
Of course Linux (the kernel) is much more dominant on mobile because of Android. But then again Android is indirectly supported by Google ad revenue and so would contradict the original claim in the thread I'm responding to:
> Linux seems to be doing just fine keeping software maintained without ads or harvesting data.
I know, my point is that the most complex pieces of software within Ubuntu are not primarily developed by Canonical and thus it's possible to maintain complex Linux software without having ads and tracking.
The fact that Canonical had developed spyware has nothing to do with the Linux kernel, glibc, bash, GNOME, systemd, PulseAudio, all of which prove that you don't need ads and tracking to maintain Linux software.
I think it's a lot more plausible that Microsoft could still do fine with Windows if they took out ads than that Linux would be doing much better in the desktop market if they started bundling in ads.
Satya has done a tremendous job turning around Microsoft. It was headed in the direction of becoming a slowly sinking behemoth under Ballmer, but he's turned it around.
Sundar, on the other hand, is just content collecting $$ and showing more ads.
In what way was MS sinking under Ballmer? Maybe they were not exciting but they were super profitable every year. I think it's more about better PR.
Not everything is golden at MS now either. I am working on creating a platform for our medical software on Windows 10 and it really makes me want to switch to Linux or iOS. Windows is a big mess of old and new code and attempts of sandboxing like iOS but only half-hearted. Keeping up with the semi-annual channel is also insane. I would much prefer annual or biannual releases that are actually stable. It's a very developer unfriendly platform now.
I mostly agree, I’ve been a .net developer for over a decade and the current state of things is very wonky. For the past couple years I’ve been unsure where to focus my efforts to make sure I don’t wind up in another situation where I get very good at Silverlight just to have it all thrown away. At this point with Microsoft half backing away from UWP and half continuing to push it, I don’t know if it’s better for me to make the jump or not. Also it’s more clear now that .net Core the future, but for a while it’s been very confusing and it’s still not 100% clear if it’s going to encompass all the scenarios I need or if I’m going to have to keep abreast of both sides. Rather than staying at the bleeding edge of .net like I used to, I’ve been finding it safer to just give it space and wait for things to solidify. All in all, developing for the Microsoft platform has become very confusing over the past several years.
Still better than trying to keep up to date on the NodeJS or frontend development world though :-P
Windows always been a pain to develop for. And every Windows version redundantly includes "a new api for everything" alongside all the horrible legacy stuff.
But Microsoft's recent efforts on Linux & macOS, i.e. VSCode, has been surprisingly good. They do a lot of things, I think Typescript is run by MS as well.
So that's something that positively changed under Nadella.
I believe this is because MS wants to move away from being an OS provider to being a service provider. If a service runs on Linux they won't care as long as its generating revenue for them. Whether this is Nadella's push or obvious from MS's accountants is hard to say.
As a Microsoft shareholder, this was my favorite line from the article: "for Microsoft, 'profitable and boring' is just a longer way of saying 'profitable.'"
If you are going to talk about operating systems, iOS and Android/Linux blew by Windows on his watch despite Microsoft's big head start in the smartphone space. I think that's directly the result of Microsoft not being exciting.
And how much has Android “winning” help Google? From the Oracle trial, it came out that Android has only made Google $21 billion in profit during its entire existence and the largest market for “Android”, China, doesn’t make Google one dime.
I'm suspicious of that figure as you've presented it, but I'm not all that familiar with the trial either.
If it weren't for Android, how many fewer people would be using Chrome as their daily mobile browser? How can we quantify the data slurped up and clicks generated on google.com by those added chrome instances? What about YouTube impressions? How many fewer people would be using Google maps daily? How much less location data would Google possess without living in people's pockets?
How did they measure the value of the Google play services ubiquity?
Have these things plus the app store really only generated 21 billion?
If it weren't for Android, how many fewer people would be using Chrome as their daily mobile browser?
Chrome doesn’t make them any money besides Google.com being the default search engine. Pre-Chrome, Google already had an overwhelming share of the search engine market.
What about YouTube impressions?
The same with YouTube. My old Blackberry phone came with a YouTube app as did the iPhone before there was even an App Store. Would Apple have been so fast to not bundle Youtube or Google Maps if it weren’t for Android?
Have these things plus the app store really only generated 21 billion?
I would hope that Oracle’s high priced lawyers would have taken all that into account.
> Have these things plus the app store really only generated 21 billion?
Considering why the number was revealed, Google had every incentive in the world to understate as much as they could get away with. Plus, how is $21 billion profit not a great thing for them? The revenue number was north of $30 billion.
Every incentive in the world to understate except maybe they didn’t think lying to a federal judge was a good idea? Can you imagine the penalties for not being truthful during discovery?
Google has generated tens of billions of dollars in profit (and a lot of money for Microsoft via licensing). iOS turned Apple into a trillion dollar company. Meanwhile it's not clear if Microsoft made anything from their Windows Phone investment.
Again not according to official court records. iOS turned Apple into a trillion dollar company because of hardware sells. Selling phones haven’t been profitable for any Android manufacturer. Even Samsung’s ASP is around $270 for phones.
The hardware that Microsoft sells is inconsequential to the bottom line. XBox’s sell at a loss and the few surface computers they sell don’t move the needle.
Is "opportunity sinking" a thing? Remaining stagnant for years and years when there was growth to be had if only Microsoft would go after it was on Ballmer.
How does that matter? The article clearly states that Microsoft was still hanging on Window and PC software for majority of its revenue and made terrible bets (like Nokia acquisition) under Ballmer. Satya worked hard to change the direction of the company. He pushed to cut budgets from other departments and invested in Azure. Another important thing is that he resisted the urge to make shiny bets (like self driving cars) and kept the company focused on its cloud strategy.
They still are. Azure is to Office 365 as Apple's rebirth is to the iPod. "Halo effect".
Office 365 was a classic Microsoft bundled cost play -- you have this big investment in your EA around the Microsoft ecosystem and you basically pay to put email in the cloud, and get Sharepoint and Skype for free. They then made deals on EA renewal to convert "on-prem" Office licenses to subscriptions to lock you in.
In subsequent renewals, Microsoft uses Azure gift cards like a "tax credit" to drive behavior without a competitive process. They're essentially applying the Office 365 playbook to Windows Server/Active Directory/SQL Server and eventually Windows Client. Example: You pay for Azure AD by getting ATP for "free".
It's not taking away from Satya, his genius is dressing up the classic Microsoft hard-nosed deal playbook and making it friendlier in key ways, and cutting the cord on legacy. (Which is a risk, as it's an opportunity for AWS, Google, Oracle, etc to sell) But ultimately, the strategy existed and was executed before with Ballmer, but with less charisma and humanity.
Yeah, it's hard to see what Nadella's leadership has actually added to MS from where I've standing. As best as I can tell, there hasn't been any major new products or shifts since Ballmer left. People talk about MS "stagnating" under Ballmer, and that's true of the stock price, but revenue and profit more than doubled under Ballmer and he introduced multiple new billion-dollar products/services. Nadella has made some notable acquisitions (LinkedIn, Github, Minecraft), but I'm not real sure that these are really winners from a business perspective, aside from Minecraft.
Sure, Ballmer had failures too - Windows Phone and Zune didn't take off. But you can't win every time.
EDIT: Sorry, was lazy and abbreviated Windows Phone to WP.
Nadella has made a few key changes, for example exempting internal product teams from having to consider Windows as the only OS to develop for, changed the incentive structure for sales to avoid pushing products enterprises didn't care about etc... When you're a CEO your success is usually not dependent by flashy all in decisions, especially if you're managing a giant company like MS. You are successful by setting policies that allow your talent to do more of the right stuff, your sales folks to sell more and better etc ...
I think they are in danger of neglecting Windows too much to the point of people leaving the platform. I personally wouldn't recommend Windows anymore. And almost nobody who isn't using Windows will use azure or .NET Core.
I completely disagree, using .NET Core on non-windows machines has a lot of upsides. I use linux almost exclusively and .NET Core has just worked and is way more perform-ant out the box than java or node has been.
> And almost nobody who isn't using Windows will use azure or .NET Core.
I disagree with this too. I've been looking into .NET Core since it's been open sourced. And I'd consider Azure. But I certainly won't be using windows (for server stuff) unless I'm forced to.
Having read Nadella's book Hit Refresh as soon as it went on sale, Microsoft performance since then doesn't look surprising at all. Having listed what's wrong (with their product focus, company culture etc), and where they plan to head, its' almost like the book informs the reader where puck is going to be (from Satya's POV).
It's funny that 15 years back I was so anti MS and pro Google and now I think it's the other way!
“It's funny that 15 years back I was so anti MS and pro Google and now I think it's the other way!”
Stay skeptical of all of them. No need to be fan of one of the big techs. In the end they are all greedy organizations that want to dominate. None of them should be trusted.
As a developer MS has treated me really well, IMO.
They churn out as much short-lived tech as the next company but I think their windows-based culture of backwards compatibility carried over into the developer ecosystem, and the future of .Net Core running in Linux containers with docker and k8s, against SQL Server on Linux would make anyone who's been away from their tech for the past 5 years think they stepped out of a time machine.
On backwards compatibility. I recently learned that apple has deprecated OpenGL and soon will not support it at all. What a slap to developers... so yeah there is some value to Microsofts approach.
There is an advantage and a disadvantage to backwards compatibility. Letting people keep using old technology that hampers progress. You have to devote resources to ensuring that it still works, and you have less people using the new stuff.
Apple isn't afraid of ditching tech when it becomes clear it's a dead end. In almost all cases they've been correct and the rest of the industry soon follows their leads.
Think how reliable Windows would be today if they hadn't left in all the cruft as far back as Windows 2000.
> In almost all cases they've been correct and the rest of the industry soon follows their leads.
Counterpoint: 3.5mm jacks are perfectly fine and were never a "dead end".
OpenGL's indeed pretty crusty, but Vulkan is not. Apple would be better off participating in that ecosystem instead of letting NIH syndrome take hold.
> Think how reliable Windows would be today if they hadn't left in all the cruft as far back as Windows 2000.
Counterpoint: an x86 Linux executable statically compiled/linked any time after the a.out → ELF migration (so... predating Windows 2000) can be expected to run without issue on a bleeding-edge x86 kernel today (and if it's not able to do so, then that's a bug, and Linus will personally descend upon and eviscerate the one unfortunate enough to have introduced that bug).
I think this is a better aphorism than "trust, but verify".
I work in the information security assurance field, I swear that 90% of the issues I see at companies with external service providers comes back to the fact that their contract does not have anywhere enough ability to hold the service provider to task...
Get everything you need in the contract / agreement, then hope you never have to use it.
From my experience it’s close to impossible to have a 100% bullet proof contract. If you try that you end up with the typical government contracting style where you spend a lot of time with specs and requirements upfront but it falls apart as soon as it touches reality.
In the end you need to pick suppliers you can work with productively no matter what the correct details are.
You're correct: an oxymoron is a phrase that is seemingly self-contradictory. While "trust but verify" is an oxymoron, it is not a contradiction or paradox.
A simpler oxymoron is "to make haste slowly". In that phrase, the "make haste" part describes velocity, while "slowly" describes acceleration. Anyone who has taken Calculus knows that velocity and acceleration can be independent variables. Thus "to make haste slowly" is an oxymoron but not self-contradictory.
Similarly, "trust but verify" describes two possibly independent variables: your attitude about the future and your behavior regarding the past. You can choose to trust people to make good decisions for the future, while simultaneously verifying they made good decisions in the past. Alternatives to "trust but verify" include "always trust", which has obvious bad consequences; "never trust", which has different but also bad consequences; "trust sometimes", which is ambiguous; and "verify always", which is unrealistic. The phrase "trust but verify" describes a healthy attitude and behavior.
But the whole point of trusting is that you get to skip verifying. What's the difference between trusting and not trusting if you still have to put in the work of verification anyway?
The difference is in when you begin cooperating. You can work much faster by immediately acting on agreements and later making sure the other party is attempting to hold up their end than you can by waiting until you can prove something about the other party and only then starting whatever it is you were supposed to do.
Consider these different hiring schemes:
1. Hire whoever applies, and keep them forever, no matter what. ("Trust, don't verify.")
2. Hire whoever applies, and fire them later if they don't seem to be working out. ("Trust, but verify.")
3. Full background check and extensive additional vetting before an offer is made. ("Don't trust, do verify.")
4. Never hire anyone. ("Don't trust, don't verify.")
Aside from the obvious pacing differences, note that what's verified (or not) in options 1/2 is different from what is verified in option 3. That's not a coincidence -- before you start working with someone, you can't assess whether they're doing a good job. You have to rely on more general (and therefore less reliable) markers of trustworthiness.
(You may think option 4 sounds ridiculous. It isn't -- that is the historical norm for cooperation outside of very well-defined groups like your family or your tribe.)
How is verifying everything because you don't trust people not to make a mistake operationally different from verifying everything because you suspect bad faith? To the supposed trusted party, the result is the same: you not taking them at their word and instead checking whatever they do. Even if you're being honest about only verifying to avoid mistakes, you can never prove it.
This definition of "trust but verify" would be better reduced to "verify", since it essentially claims that trust is, if not impossible, not practically applicable in any situation.
@stupidcar we've reached the depth-limit, so I'm responding here.
> In the case of "trust but verify", how does this trust manifest in a provable way?
Good point. "provable" is the problem here since we don't know eachother, and frankly I can't prove you're trustworthy initially; that's why the question this addresses (namely "trust-or-misstrust?") arises in the first place. Assuming we don't have dossiers on everyone we're going to meet and work with, we have to decide on an initial point on the trust-scale you mentioned with which to begin interaction.
"Trust but verify" is about having faith that people are generally good, and treating strangers that way while protecting yourself. It indicates balance between treating strangers like data-points and getting walked all over is important, and it provides a suggestion about how to approach the situation.
Regardless, I suggest that it is better to reply to the comment you're replying to than to reply to some other comment, whether you see a reply link or not. You don't need the reply link to reply to a comment.
There are different kinds and levels of trust. "Trust but verify" doesn't mean you should give strangers your SSN.
I agree that this nuance is lost within the turn-of-phrase, but omitting the trust part doesn't seem to me like a good way to build a collaborative society. Companies are just people.
Yes, of course trust is a spectrum, and socially important, etc. But none of that answers my question: In the case of "trust but verify", how does this trust manifest in a provable way?
Consider it like this: For me, trust is feelings/thoughts. I might trust you a little, a lot, etc. But for you, my trust can only be demonstrated by my actions, because you can't peer inside my head and tell whether I'm genuinely trust you, or I'm only claiming to.
"Trust but verify" recommends adopting a mindset of trust but a pattern of behaviour externally indistinguishable from distrust. If I'm verifying everything you do, that does't signal trust, whatever the reasons I might give for it.
The trust part is me trusting you to want to do the right thing. The verify part is me checking that nothing went wrong - either through a mistake on your part, a misunderstanding on mine, or just the signal loss from the fact that human communication is imperfect.
You've just restated the original post and ignored my question. Again: how does this definition of supposed trust differ from distrust in any verifiable way?
Trust but verify: I will trust you will do X, and will do Y in return, but I will verify that you are actually doing X. Example: mutual disarmament treaties with Soviet Union, Iran nuclear deal.
Don't trust: I will not even engage with you and will not do Y. Example: the belief by some that US should not engage in high-level diplomatic talks with North Korea on disarmament because North Korea has no incentive to follow through on its promises.
It seems to me that the range of human error is rarely smaller than that of malice, so again I'm not sure there will be much apparent difference between an exhaustive verification of either sort.
If you suspect bad faith (i.e. don't trust someone) you don't even get in business. If you trust someone but verify their work, you get in business but still limit damage if they turn out to act in bad faith.
It is, but also carries a clear message; I think that dichotomy is why it's been such an enduring phrase.
The term became well known in the US during the cold war, in the context of arms treaties. The US and Russia were making agreements that relied on at least the appearance of, and some degree of actual, trust. Meanwhile they were undertaking extensive efforts to check if the other party was actually following their obligations.
No idea, was just messing around. If one really were to do this, the best way would probably be to trick them into employing you, and then verify from the inside (and even then, good luck!). I do believe it's going to be an issue in the future, if it isn't already one. Even as a government, how do you really make sure that company X erases the data?
> It's funny that 15 years back I was so anti MS and pro Google and now I think it's the other way!
You should be pro-neither. Microsoft used to be against FOSS because they thought it would make them more money; Microsoft is currently friendlier to FOSS because they think it will make them more money. Does that make them bad people? No because all businesses are that way, even the vaunted "don't be evil" Google.
Even when Microsoft does FOSS, they do it in a way that has "proprietary" written all over it. I'm quite excited about writing C# on Linux, but slapping a MIT license on code you release is only half the deal.
Yesterday I decided to write some C# code on Linux. That's easy, I thought: VSCode and .NET Core can both be found in Arch's repos these days. I just have to set an environment variable and edit VSCode's settings to disable telemetry... But alas! It turns out that I need to install Microsoft's proprietary release of Visual Studio Code because the C# debugger is only licensed to work with Visual Studio Code
"This license applies to the Visual Studio Code product. Source Code for Visual Studio Code is available at https://github.com/Microsoft/vscode under the MIT license agreement..."
Source code and final product have different licenses but VSCode and Visual Studio Code refer to the same thing. If you're using the official release channel then you should have the final product that is licensed to use the debugger.
Being pro/anti specific companies in a very binary way, like you point out, is a false path.
However, placing all companies in the same bucket is committing a similar mistake.
There is definitely a “gradient of morality” amongst companies, despite all of them doing things because they think it is what will make them the most money in the long run.
A company building products that end up aiding the carrying out of genocides, for instance, is clearly on a more extreme end of the spectrum than a company making money selling music streaming subscriptions.
> A company building products that end up aiding the carrying out of genocides, for instance, is clearly on a more extreme end of the spectrum...
Couldn't that describe just about any company or open source project?
A database and office software end up helping you manage and track your genocide.
A camera company's products and photo/video editing software end up helping people create beheading videos and child porn.
When we create a general purpose product and release it to the world, we lose control of who uses it and for what purposes. In fact, that is a specific requirement for free and open source software licenses.
But perhaps you'd agree with me that there's a line between a company making products like cameras - which can certainly be used to cruel ends, but typically easily replaced by any of your competitor's products, and not pivotal to such efforts - and a company building a product that has no real replacement, is central to anti-human practices, and routinely ignores the criticisms and suggestions of human rights groups around the world.
I agree 100%! In fact your comment reminded me of something from nearly 20 years ago. A friend was putting together a startup for some kind of "interactive advertising email" and asked a couple of us if we would find it objectionable if we did a joint promotion with a porn company.
I said that if I worked for a camera company, of course I would know that our products would be used for all sorts of different purposes beyond our control, but if the camera company was doing special partnerships with porn companies I would probably quit.
(For anyone who is thinking "what's wrong with adult porn?" I'm just sharing my feeling from that time. Substitute "child porn traffickers" or "genocidal maniacs" to get an idea of where I was coming from.)
I wasn't comparing videos of consenting adults with genocidal maniacs.
I was sharing a real life example of a situation where I had no problem building a general purpose product that anyone could use, while at the same I might object to special deals or promotions with an industry I was uncomfortable with at the time.
The only reason I even mentioned porn and genocide in the same sentence was to say "you may not relate to my porn example, but there is probably some other situation - like a custom feature for genocidal maniacs - that you would personally object to." And I didn't bring up genocide out of the blue, it was the very topic of the thread I was replying to.
I am Pro Apple, but that is only because for most of the time they have stick to their words. That was Steve's Apple then, Tim Cook doesn't seems to be quite as trust worthy at least according to Qualcomm's case.
I was Anti MS, I guess I am neutral on them now. But I never trusted Google in the first place, and found it odd every one jumps to Google's hype. From Gmail to Google Docs. And now I found it funny they are Anti Google again.
The only explanation I found plausible, is that people like David and not Goliath. They always prefer the underdogs to win, and the titans to lose.
Microsoft's hard turn for the best is a weird mirror image of Google's hard turn for the worst.
It almost makes me want to give Windows a try again (ha not really). But I'd try a "Microsoft Linux" desktop (which no longer sounds like a ridiculous concept), before I would try Chrome OS.
I think that, in addition to mobile devices, the browser is the new desktop and MS has conceded that to Google with Edge to be built on Chromium, so the chance of a MS Linux seem slim. Bill Gates always talked about beating competitors by commoditizing their offering; I think you're seeing MS do that to themselves with containerization built on linux or at the most nanoserver. It may take twenty years to kill off the last version in corporate IT, but windows desktop is dead.
With wsl, "Microsoft Linux" is running Linux binaries on a windows NT derived kernel. With a release of sql server running under Linux, and Linux binaries running on windows under wsl - I'm not sure what Microsoft would want with a Microsoft Linux distribution (Linux kernel running gnu/Linux user land)?
But it was interesting to know the foundations of the transition being laid from day 1 with Nadella as CEO. The book is more like a little bit of a background of Nadella (his life in India and early days in US) and a little bit about his career in microsoft before becoming CEO and the rest of it is about the transition from pre-CEO to CEO and the initial months.
TBH, I was a bit skeptical that culture change that he focussed on would end up having such a huge impact. But I was sure that his work in terms of focus on cloud, AI, ML and also considering the challenges of such computing power, certainly was the right direction for MS to move.
I feel the same way. Although in my case it is also due to age. I‘ve lost patience with the linux ecosystem a long time ago, it’s all fun and games when you are in control, but being forced to use a Linux cluster or custom Debian installation without admin privileges is so much worse than working on an administered windows or macOS could possibly be. At least there you have sane defaults.
> It's funny that 15 years back I was so anti MS and pro Google and now I think it's the other way!
Or 15 years before that, pro-MS and anti-IBM. IBM is still huge, but they've found a steady revenue stream doing enterprise stuff, so they're not creating (much) fresh evil. MS could have made steady profits writing decent desktop software (I'm not so sure now). They're both powerful but comfortable. Google is huge, and still thinks it can rule the world.
Companies are a bit like religions. When they're small, they can't have much impact. When they're big and young, they can wreak havoc. If they make it to comfortable old age, they're peaceful and stable. The Catholic Church is huge, benign, and stable now, but 1000 years ago they were a bit more conquest-focused and violent, and 2000 years ago they were just a few harmless militants.
> Companies are a bit like religions. When they're small, they can't have much impact. When they're big and young, they can wreak havoc. If they make it to comfortable old age, they're peaceful and stable. The Catholic Church is huge, benign, and stable now, but 1000 years ago they were a bit more conquest-focused and violent, and 2000 years ago they were just a few harmless militants.
That's a really bad analogy and detracts a lot from your point. Big religions that reach old age are merely stable, but that doesn't necessarily make them peaceful or benign. My guess is that you're probably looking at it through the lens of living in United States.
> My guess is that you're probably looking at it through the lens of living in United States.
Well, that is where I live, so that's the lens I have... My experience is that religions tend to settle down as they age. Catholics, while they may have firm belief, tend to keep it to themselves, and not to proselytize. It's more of a culture and ritual than a fervent cause. Protestants, especially Evangelicals, tend to be a bit more vocal. Mormons were killing people not so long ago[1] (though my Mormon friends never tried to convert me). Scientologists are just insane. Our older religions are, on average, more peaceful and benign.
I don't know where you live or grew up, so I can't guess at your experience with religion.
I think your reasoning is a perfect example of Confirmation bias, I do agree with your points but there is no way to analyze this objectively - market is a complex system with game theory and all kinds of players doing unpredictable things, disasters such as password leaks, etc. If results were the opposite, one can come up with various other reasons to explain their losses.
Most of the initiatives Satya has gotten credit for were started under Ballmer. Some of the worst moves I've seen regarding current MSFT internal culture were direct results of Satya
Source: Me, at MSFT before Ballmer left and still there now.
That doesn't mean Satya's not had a good effect overall. Part of the investor postives were due to PR differences that Satya made (which are very good), and his ability to talk about the future of the company is far superior to Ballmer.
biggest negative I would say is getting rid of the SDET role and moving them into Telemetry.
It moved the onus of testing on Devs who've never done it before as part of their job and thusly very lacking. The bungled W10 recent releases can be directly tied back to this model. As PMs and Devs don't account for testing like they used to before shipping to customers.
This may be fine and dandy short-term, but if you're biggest customers rely on stability for code bases over 25 years old--getting rid of focused testing and reliability is a big no-no.
> biggest negative I would say is getting rid of the SDET role and moving them into Telemetry.
I don't quite understand this move. Would you mind to elaborate?
Are you saying that previously SDET role exist at MSFT and today, it does not exist anymore? And that Developers have to rely on Telemetry (logging, metrics, notifications, error reporting, etc etc) ?
Perhaps I don't understand "Telemetry" in this statement.
They erased the Software Developer in Test role, and moved to a 'Quality' role.
The 'Quality' role implements Telemetry for the working product which turns into metrics that PMs/Dev Managers look at to determine shipping.
I used to be an SDET, and re-interviewed in order to be a Dev after the big switch. I could have rolled right into 'Quality', but I didn't find that as interesting. As a result, the automated Testing that used to be done by the SDET team is moved to be the responsibility of the Dev teams. Most dev teams knew little to nothing about the automated tests that were being run every day against their code (Upgrade tests, BVTs, integration tests).
SDETs also created tools and internal frameworks which were created to reduce cost; for example, I implemented a Code-Coverage based test-pass to reduce the 24 hour automated test suite that was running every day on Windows Phone main branch.
The previous SDET role's responsbility has moved 100% to Dev Teams, none of which had to ever think about that facet of development before. As a result, you get me implementing automated test suites for 5 different teams in 3 years (WSL, Ink, Text, Touch input, kernel sec) because I know the frameworks more than 25 year veterans of Windows internal development. Some of these teams had 10-15 years of built in collatoral that is now attempting to be revived because management realizes that they've dropped the ball quite a bit.
Sure, but if you do understand what a company is doing under the hood, you can make informed long-term investments based on that (which still pose a risk because of the reasons you stated). If you knew Facebook's history and engineering practices years ago you would have accurately predicted that the other shoe would eventually drop. If you paid attention to Microsoft's shift in focus you would either have thought that it was foolish to try to beat Amazon or it was a great space to invest in because AWS has many flaws. I dunno, I'm just trying to say that knowledge about this stuff can give you an edge in investing.
To be fair the comment says "I bought it because x, y, z", which is probably true; not "it has gone up because x, y, z", although that might be implied.
No one really knows what’s going to happen in a recession. I suspect it won’t be pretty. Revenues will probably contract just as well in the reverse direction and I suspect many customers will look to cut costs by eliminating monthly recurring expenses.
Perhaps recurring revenue business will be more resilient. I can see a path for that as well. But no one really knows.
You can make the same argument for the old CDs-in-boxes model too. "If there's a recession, sales will go down".
The difference is that recurring payments vastly improve your cashflow situation. Instead of giant pulses every 3 years you have a smoother pipeline of cash coming in all the time. Even if that pipeline shrinks, it still flows.
It's far easier to plan for a 10% reduction that happens continuously than a 3 year plan with lots of "??$??" sprinkled throughout it. And far easier to recover from mistakes.
What kind of reoccurring microsoft expenses would an organization be able to shed? Can't really cut back on costs for word and excel/office suite. If your data is in Azure already, it would cost even more probably to move it all off and administer it yourself. Seems like they're pretty well locked in.
There is efficient usage of the cloud and inefficient usage. How data is processed, moved around and things like fleet size can all greatly impact your final bill.
Most companies don't optimize for cloud costs to great lengths.
Is microsoft actually making a lot of money off Azure once you've divorced office 365 revenue from the cloud bucket? Clearly you made a good market decision but I've yet to see anything to suggest that Azure as a pure-play is a runaway financial success, and even where Azure is making money it's not been to AWS' detriment
> There’s a bit of Silicon Valley cred, too, thanks to its acquisitions of LinkedIn, the professional social network, and GitHub, the software code repository.
I would have thought open sourcing so much of it's framework, vscode, and typescript would have had a greater impact.
> I would have thought open sourcing so much of it's framework
I have a pedantic correction here.
Instead of open sourcing the .NET Framework they wrote a new opensource framework (named .NET core) that is very similar to their closed source framework. Microsoft is currently supporting and expanding both frameworks.
FYI, only way forward is core. Microsoft doesn't really invest much in older net and related (for example PowerShell 5). There may be fixes here and there but are mostly security.
It defies logic to support 2 frameworks, one of which is WAY BETTER then the other and x-platform.
I remain skeptical of some of the company's intentions and practices, esp. regarding privacy and user rights/freedom, but VSCode and TypeScript have truly earned the respect of the community.
For me personally, these two open-source projects have greatly influenced my view of Microsoft for the better.
> “I don’t know of any other software company in the history of technology that fell onto hard times and has recovered so well,” says Reed Hastings, CEO of Netflix Inc.
Microsoft's core revenue is still due to market lock-in of their proprietary technologies: MS Office and Windows itself. There are other office suites out there, but nothing can gain much market share without complete compatibility for MS Office file formats: docx, pptx, etc. Microsoft produced a version of Office for Macs and that allowed Apple to grow greater than niche, but their market share was always tiny compared to Windows.
Outside of Windows and Mac, you're in Open Source land, which is great if you're technically minded and want to tinker and explore, but not much of an option for folks who just want their computers to work with the consumer software and file formats around them. Other than Apple, where are the commercial alternatives to Microsoft?
I'd be much more sympathetic to Nardella's renaissance if it meant real consumer choice. The situation is better than it was under Ballmer, but not as good as it could be in a real free marketplace.
Excel and Photoshop are in a league of their own. There are competing tools that do some of the things they do, but I can think of very few that manage to be a baseline for everyone.
I agree. But the funny thing about both of those is they reached a point of diminishing returns arguably in 2007 and certainly by 2010. The versions back then provide the features needed by 95-99% of the existing user base today.
I use Sheets for work and increasingly a bunch of personal stuff. I wish Google would invest more in customization of visuals and such with charts and allow for better pivot functionality, but otherwise it is pretty solid.
I can't see myself ever paying for Excel for personal use at this point.
I second your statement about Google Docs. I find it amazing that they don't put a bigger focus on performance. We're talking about tools that are essentially about being productive!
Any Google Docs product feels incredibly sluggish, and I feel this trend lately even in Gmail or Google Keep. It just constantly feels like those old-school fat clients constantly hiccupping because of a slow server.
Google's office software is a joke compared to the standalone versions of Office. Microsoft's web based Office is pretty bad, too, but at least they don't mangle imported documents quite as bad.
I know everybody thinks they're "good enough" for most people, but they're still crap compared to the regular desktop programs.
Their compatibility with existing MS documents is not good enough yet. This is largely because you'd have to mirror many glitches and idiosyncrasies in MS's code to have full compatibility. Or as the say in the industry "bug-for-bug compatibility".
Microsoft’s “performance” wasn’t bad by any objective metric during the Ballmer era. If the stock market were rational, MS stock would have been doing a lot better under Balmer than it did.
But then again, if the stock market were rational, Lyft would have never been able to go public and Tesla would basically be worthless.
MS was basically making money no matter what given the highly lucrative office + windows franchise that Bill Gates left behind. I wouldn't credit Balmer with that too much he just basically kept on milking that. The problem by the time he left was that there was increasingly less to squeeze.
Shareholders tend to look forward rather than backward and it was getting very clear that windows and office were increasingly less critical to users and that there were some serious revenue issues around that going forward. Windows on the server was basically getting less relevant by the day. Windows desktop was feeling a lot of pressure from Apple and increasingly Google. Office sales were suffering when companies started using alternative office tools from e.g. Google. Windows Phone was not working that great either and struggled to gain market share on Apple and Google. The Nokia acquisition that Balmer pushed through was sort of the nail in the coffin here. That was an expensive failure and that is 100% on Balmer.
The keyword in those strategies was windows. Under Balmer it absolutely had to be windows everywhere. Server, desktop, mobile, IOT, and all the rest. It wasn't working. That's why Balmer 'left' (i.e. was pretty much fired but in a nice face saving way).
Nadella killed that windows everything strategy and turned things around. Office is now liberated from Windows and making a lot of money for MS again. Cloud is growing more important as well, courtesy of mostly non windows software running on Linux in Azure. Meanwhile windows on the desktop seems pretty cool now that MS has added Linux integration, a non MS browser, and a few other things that make it a lot more attractive for developers and users and now that they are no longer forced to be in this windows everything walled garden. Even mobile is doing great for MS now that they can focus on treating IOS and Android as first class citizens.
If you just look at the time between 2000-2007, the first half of Ballmer’s tenure. The stock wasn’t doing well, but revenues were steadily increasing. During this time:
- Apple was still on PowerPC processors until 2006 and weren’t really any threat to Microsoft.
- The iPhone didn’t come out until 2007 and really didn’t start gaining market share until 2010. Even today, Google’s “winning” with Android has only netted it less than $30 billion in profit since inception (https://www.theverge.com/2016/1/21/10810834/android-generate...)
- Microsoft adding WSL only matters to a few techies.
- Even the Nokia acquisition happened later during his tenure.
Balmer missed the boat on all of this because he was out of touch. Android and Iphone indeed happened around the 2006-2008 time frame after having been rumored since about 2003-2006. They both were the logical conclusion from OSS and Linux emerging in the late nineties as a viable platform for development on embedded hardware. The difference between Balmer and Jobs is what they did in the nineties. Jobs ran a startup that produced the software that he later brought back to Apple that indeed also became the basis for the iphone. That's a decade plus of vision, R&D, etc. coming together. Balmer's vision meanwhile was Windows everywhere throughout this. When Jobs went on stage with the iphone, Balmer had nothing meaningful whatsoever to show. The little MS had was quickly forgotten. Once the iphone launched, Windows CE was dead as a door nail.
Windows Phone was a nice effort but years late and bogged down in a continued windows everywhere strategy and aggravated by lousy execution combined with institutional arrogance. They initially launched it as a windows CE shell with severe limitations. Then they alienated their OEMs and users with a highly disruptive and backwards incompatible move to windows NT. Finally, they topped it up with the Nokia acquisition. Nokia had committed early to windows phone which because of the prolonged uncertainty around this platform proved to be a major disaster. I used to work at Nokia, I've seen them fuck this up close. It wasn't pretty and Balmer was right at the center of it. MS ultimately acquired it and then proved it did not know how to fix it either. I still believe they could have pulled it off but not with the leadership (or lack thereof) that they had.
Balmer missed the boat utterly and completely, misread the market signals, and came up empty handed. The doomed Nokia acquisition was the proverbial nail in his coffin: the last in a decade long series of expensive failures.
The Google thing a few years ago was an existential threat to MS. Google was pushing users to chrome books running google office in a chrome browser on cheap hardware that ran Linux. The existential threat was two fold: no windows and no office. Nadella turned that around by making office 365 something that runs well everywhere, including on Chrome OS. The recent reverse takeover of Chromium by making that the centerpiece of Edge, sort of solidifies this. Up until then MS strategy was charging loads of money for windows on expensive laptops. Small form factor laptops became a thing during the mid 2000s and one key problem with those was that the windows license was substantial cost factor. It sort of made putting linux on hardware like that inevitable. It's the same problem they had on mobile. Expensive windows licenses for cheap phones did not make sense. That's why Android happened.
WSL indeed only matters to techies. But if techies pull their nose up for your platform, you have a long term problem because techies are the people that produce the things that make your platform long term viable. Five years ago, no self respecting engineer deploying on Linux would bother much with a windows machine. It was just too painful. Nothing worked and a typical README for developer tools on e.g. Github would be heavily mac/linux centric. Things like node.js, git, etc. barely even worked on it or only with a lot of workarounds and kludges. It was a big reason for Azure flopping in the market because MS sold windows in the cloud when the market was moving away from Windows. Nadella turned that around by embracing OSS, linux, and turning Balmer's mantra of "developers, developers, developers" into something that actually meant something to developers again. VS Studio Code and typescript now dominating the node.js and javascript ecosystem is quite a contrast with half a decade ago.
Microsoft not only saw mobile coming, Windows Mobile (CE/Pocket PC) was out years before Android and iOS and was decently popular as a smart phone OS. HTC made dozens of models under its own brand and for other manufacturers.
But if techies pull their nose up for your platform, you have a long term problem because techies are the people that produce the things that make your platform long term viable.
Techies don’t matter. The people that were making Windows viable were Microsoft themselves with Office, other major software vendors, and the dark matter developers writing bespoke software that never saw the light of day outside of internal use. There is a reason that VB6 still shows up in Stack Overflow rankings almost 20 years after MS abandoned it.
What were developers going to do? Ignore 90% of the market and wait for the year of Linux on the desktop?
IIS was used plenty for corporate Intranets and many low bandwidth sites. The dark matter developers who develop for the enterprise and go home at night and don’t post on HN or before that Slashdot are everywhere.
MS saw it coming, enjoyed some brief success with OEMs like htc around 2004, and then Android and IOS steamrolled over it by the 2008-2010 time frame. Sitting ducks basically.
I worked at Nokia back in the day. Nokia knew this as well (I read the internal mailing lists, this was debated and speculated on heavily) and they did not act in time either.
2005 was in retrospect the key moment to act. Neither Nokia nor MS managed to do the right things. Apple and Google did. This was not exactly a secret except it did not translate into meaningful action.
Worse, Nokia actually shut down several projects that in retrospect could have saved their ass when it was handed to them by Apple in 2007 with the iphone launch. E.g. S90 (touch UI for S60) was killed in favor of S60 (no touch whatsoever until 2008) in 2005. Then in 2007 they went "oh fuck" and tried to bring it back on S60 ultimately resulting in a prematurely launched device that was everything the iphone wasn't (slow, ugly, unstable, etc.). Subsequent attempts to fix it yielded no results. Bringing in windows phone years later was an act of desperation.
Likewise Debian linux on tablets and phones was a thing in 2005 already. E.g. the N700 and N800 tablets shipped with it long before the ipad or iphone were a thing. Google ff-ing prototyped Android on these devices even before they shipped their nexus phone. Also, the chrome browser that made Android so successful? Guess what, Nokia had a webkit port for S60 in 2005 already. Google literally built Android/Chrome ecosystem on top of R&D done by Nokia (kernel drivers and optimizations, browsers, and other low level linux stuff).
I'm pretty sure MS has similar stories of death by management. Balmer was the key person in charge at MS throughout this.
2005 is also the same year that AJAX browser apps started displacing desktop UIs at a no doubt alarming rate for MS.
By the time MS was trying to push windows phone, their windows only development stack was a huge part of their problem. They needed developers to write apps for windows phone; especially developers already successful on IOS and Android. Only problem: all the IOS developers were on Macs (because Apple). And many of the Android developers were too (because they were pretty awesome). A windows laptop was a really hard sell to developers at the time because, well, they kind of sucked. Google was actively trying to compete with MS and still best friends with Apple so, the two of them created a developer friendly ecosystem outside of the MS bubble.
Because their developer ecosystem sucked, windows phone lacked apps, and therefore it flopped. Techies matter if you are a tech company trying to create and push new tech. If you are milking cobol, vb6, or some other ancient crap: fire all the techies. Basically, that's what IBM and Oracle did. Techies used to love IBM stuff. Not any more. Lets not talk about just how much they loathe Oracle at this point.
So techies not only matter but losing them cost Balmer his job and regaining their trust is a huge part of Nadella's current success.
2005 is also the same year that AJAX browser apps started displacing desktop UIs at a no doubt alarming rate for MS.
Microsoft created AJAX - it was originally and ActiveX extension that only worked in IE.
Even today, GSuite is not that popular among big corps.
By the time MS was trying to push windows phone, their windows only development stack was a huge part of their problem. They needed developers to write apps for windows phone; especially developers already successful on IOS and Android. Only problem: all the IOS developers were on Macs (because Apple). And many of the Android developers were too (because they were pretty awesome). A windows laptop was a really hard sell to developers at the time because, well, they kind of sucked. Google was actively trying to compete with MS and still best friends with Apple so, the two of them created a developer friendly ecosystem outside of the MS bubble.
Developers go where the money is. It’s not the tiny Indy developers that are making most of the money on mobile. Windows Phone didn’t fail to get apps because developers didn’t want to program on Windows. They didn’t see any money in it. Heck even MS Office was available for iOS before Windows.
"MS was basically making money no matter what given the highly lucrative office + windows franchise that Bill Gates left behind. I wouldn't credit Balmer with that too much he just basically kept on milking that. The problem by the time he left was that there was increasingly less to squeeze."
No, this is not fair.
Ballmer reconfigured sales channels, created an array of Enterprise offers including cloud - that's what enabled him to grow MS substantially during those years.
"Office is now liberated from Windows and making a lot of money for MS again. " - it always was.
The 'windows everything' strategy makes sense in the 2000's. iOS is pretty similar to MacOS - it worked for Apple. It even made sense early on in cloud.
Satya is the right choice for the right time, and it was right in hindsight to go cloud-linux and other things ...
But there's too much 'narrative' around this Satya thing.
That’s not true. I was there in MS when the office teams had a great iOS app and they wanted to ship but Ballmer blocked it.
When Nadella became CEO, they shipped it and it was a big deal. Nadellas chant was “Mobile+Cloud”. He came from Cloud & Enterprise. What he praised and asked everyone to focus on was very different from what Ballmer used to say.
Hang on. Stock market price is suppose to price in future earnings too. So, the price is always to some extend speculative and may look quite divorced from present circumstances. So, if during the Balmer era the price was depressed, it reflects the negative predicted outcome for Microsoft and if it is a bit lofty, it reflects expectations of better days to come for MSFT.
Future earnings are difficult to predict, so they factor in the warm fuzzy things that the CEO talks about, and how much 'confidence' they have in them.
Also - times change. In the 2000's people just thought MS was 'old'. Now they are realizing there's some life in the beast.
Satya deserves a lot of credit, nothing bad to say - but in hindsight it also seems as if MSFT was under priced.
The one product that really sucks from this Microsoft is Azure. I commented in a thread before Azure is the absolute worst cloud provider amongst the big three after we thoroughly evaluated all three. AWS is the best and GCP is next.
But due to management pressure we had to go with Azure.
Unfortunately the best product does not always win in the enterprise. (That is why Steve Jobs never wanted to sell directly to enterprises).
We had about 70 pages of solid analysis done on this that I unfortunately can’t share but some of the highlights:-
1. Terrible UI
2. Unclear Documentation
3. Frequent service outages.
4. Scalability issues, they were unable to scale a server in prod past 1000 connections where as in AWS/GCP they were able to 10x that with similar server specs. Something to do with how server defaults were set
5. Severe performance degradation and network exhaustion.
To be fair there were some positives but nothing exceptional.
But end of the day it kind of doesn't matter as Azure is going to be used in enterprises just because they have the legacy MSFT sales force that is tight with managements high up in the org. No wonder MSFT hit $1T.
Its such a shame for our industry though. Engineering teams at other cloud providers sweat and toil to get things right for their customers whereas MSFT uses other means to beat them. Hopefully they can at least fix things after they get in. But we know the chance of that happening is slim.
It’s just not Azure. Microsoft has a cultural problem of treating designers as second class citizens. Only some teams get the value of good design and UX.
I am curious to see your findings (if possible). We are betting big on Azure and have found it to be pretty compatible with our needs. However we may have some blind spots.
Personally, I'm more impressed by the company's President, Brad Smith, who seems to want real change in terms of digital rights. He's the man behind every single "pro user rights" Microsoft announcement you've seen in the past few years.
Meanwhile, Nadella is the man behind every single user-hostile and user-tracking feature you've seen introduced in Windows 10 (pretty much).
I think Nadella was driving more of a cultural change within the company. Business wise the path to Azure and the cloud was pretty straightforward and he stuck to it.
The question to ask might be, would Ballmer have done something else then focus on cloud? Like focus more energy on phones for instance? That could have led to a different financial result.
I like line about market cap being a useless metric for your own success. It's great on the meta-business side of things, but for real-world things it's hardly relevant.
Point is that they still make the lion share of their revenue from milking PC OEMs and plumpy corporate clients.
The fact that they changed tools for doing so, does not change the scheme at large.
Their hosting service Azure just took over their AD and sharepoint clients with some extra being the genuine new clientele
I'd say that under Nadella, they grew even more recalcitrant, and dependent on their main revenue sources.
Ever got a visit from an MS salesperson recently? One that came to us to do AD was almost begging us to switch to AD on Azure.
I'd also say that MS became a little bit akin google in that their new product efforts fall into unending cycles of rebrandings, and half-hearted restarts. A lot of oldtimer MS devs I knew say that now they got a genuine fear of every new tech coming from MS almost customarily becoming an abandonware in 2-3 years term.
“A lot of oldtimer MS devs I knew say that now they got a genuine fear of every new tech coming from MS almost customarily becoming an abandonware in 2-3 years term.”
That’s how I have been feeling from around the time WPF came out...
It probably should have always been there. I feel like the only reason Netflix is included in that acronym is to stop it from looking a bit like a homophobic slur.
It's true. It's always hard to figure out exactly how much credit the CEO should get for successes or failures of the company, but since Nadella became CEO Microsoft made a lot of good decisions that really set them up for the future. Office365 is terrific. Azure is cementing itself as the default cloud for enterprises and a solid 2nd or 3rd option outside of the enterprise. Windows 10 is great.
The subscription model is great/easy, but from the tax side I am leaning more towards the purchase model over AWS. I recently saw the Delta Airlines paid no Federal Taxes last year because of accelerated depreciation costs. With AWS, there is no accelerated depreciated, just current expenses. Anywho, I'm off to a new data center ground-breaking ceremony.
The higher the rise, the harder the fall. Great old-timers continue to jump ship in droves, and new people only apply after getting rejected by FANGs of the world. Given the size of the company this will take a while longer to play out, but play out it will, eventually.
A good article, well rounded in nature by giving the pros and cons to Microsoft's rebirth. How it impacts Microsoft internally and externally to the market in general. We need more articles like this on the internet.
True - one of the most egregious atrocities I've ever seen committed against English. I don't read Bloomberg in any case, but have no idea how I'd make myself read that article & maintain reasonable mental health regardless of the location.
To be fair, it looks really weird as a word to a French speaker.
It reads almost like "adolescence" which roughly means "teenage years".
I guess to an English speaker it sounds more like "Renaissance" but even that I'm not sure.
Here is AWS's core weakness going forward...they compete with their own cloud customers. From video streaming, to online shopping, to groceries, to logistics...why would I (as a business consumer) want to fund my own competition? Azure competes with none of its own customers, outside of perhaps AI. Amazon is AWS's biggest enemy. Azure and GCS are going to catch up on features, and customers are going to start fleeing when they realize they are helping to fund their own demise and biggest competitor. Then there will be margin pressure. The next 10 years in the cloud are going to be interesting...and while people seem to think the Cloud already has huge adoption, it's just beginning; and I think Microsoft more than any other will be the biggest benefactor.
Totally agree. It's truly interesting to think how the cloud will evolve (private vs hybrid vs public). Not to forget the shift towards the edge for IoT use-cases (which will grow rapidly in the future)
GCP may catch up on “features” but with Google’s horrible reputation for both poor customer support, and abandoning products, any decision maker should have second thoughts on choosing GCP over AWS or Azure.
I don't disagree, I think Google will suffer in the Cloud game because of their reputation to 180 and kill products. But I do think they will continue to gain ground in both customers and features. As I said though, Azure will likely benefit the most. The main reason Google will remain in the race...imo is because there is still a deeply seeded hatred of Microsoft amount a big enough part of the community.
Decision makers spending five and six figures per month on infrastructure don’t generally make decision based on “hatred” of a company.
Decision makers more often than not make choices based on some variant of “No one ever got fired for buying $x” and $x rarely equals “anything made by Google.”
Possible, but from the inside as a Microsoft Partner, it feels like most of the world is just starting to move to the cloud, and when they do, they go Azure, because they are already dependent on Exchange.
If you're already locked into msft, then yeah msft makes sense.
But one thing people often forget is that AWS is cheaper than everyone else. This matters to most companies.
Also, Azure is a pretty miserable dev experience for many of their services. Many of AWS smaller services aren't great, but better from what I've used/general sentiment.
Can you provide a source for this please? I recently priced out AWS, Azure, and GCP for GPU workloads. I found that AWS and Azure were approximately on par, whereas GCP was significantly cheaper:
I agree with you that Azure is a catastrophically miserable dev experience, but it's a mistake to compare price based on list prices. I've worked with companies who are based in India whose Azure cost through a CSP was like 40% of list. I've also had customers get huge, huge discounts offered to them to use Google Cloud. I don't know how low Amazon goes.
> But one thing people often forget is that AWS is cheaper than everyone else.
GCP is, AFAIK, usually cheaper; but AWS is more established, and the “no one ever got fired for being buying...” player of public cloud (which has to chafe MSFT, since they pretty much displaced IBM in that role for on-prem.)
Odd, I'm seeing more and more people trying to find ways to escape Exchange, and not having it as a driver towards anything. Nobody likes being driven by artificial lock-ins.
I don't think OpenLDAP is going to help you with setting up enterprise email services. Perhaps for authentication?
Alternatives for Exchange usually go in the direction of outsourcing (which ironically can mean: still Exchange, but not in the ball-and-chain on-prem way). Cloud options exist, but for people who for whatever reason require something to physically exist at a specific location (which is weird for email) commercial offerings are plenty (i.e. Zimbra, Zarafa, IBM's stuff, Red Hat's stuff, Oracle's Stuff).
It's kind of all linked together. If you use Exchange, the natural evolution to the cloud is moving to Office 365, which then entails a bunch of knock-on effects. Once you are linked in to the Azure ecosystem, it is hard to break out.
Andy Jassy is definitely in the genius realm. He sees where the cloud is going before anyone else and sets his team in motion to capture those opportunities when the time is ready.
Instead, “Intellisense with AI now available on VS Code” is Microsoft’s nice way of saying “We harvest the shit out of your data”. Ah, like a true Ad company. Don’t get me started on Windows 10 telemetry.
I really believe that Apple’s bet on privacy will pay off well in the long term. They’re different companies (Apple is selling hardware) but boy they could have gone into Ads with a MASSIVE user base but they chose to limit Ads in the App Store. It would have been huge expansion opportunity but they didn’t pursue it. And it will pay off as privacy awareness spreads and Microsoft could join them as operating system providers.