There's this big trope about how "models don't work", because black swans, etc. (Let's not get into the fact that this claim is itself a model, and his own investment strategy is, of course, based on his model.)
But the question is, is this really true? Why isn't Taleb the richest person? (I remember reading somewhere that his strategy of betting against the mainstream underperformed, but he might have made a biiig windfall due to COVID & the war? But are those enough to offset the previous underperformances?)
I haven't read the books, but I believe his argument is not "models don't work," but rather "all models are flawed, and you can't reliably predict the critical flaws. So, don't treat them with blind trust - adapt your strategies to the fact that some of your models will fail without warning and in ways you can't predict."
But the question is, is this really true? Why isn't Taleb the richest person? (I remember reading somewhere that his strategy of betting against the mainstream underperformed, but he might have made a biiig windfall due to COVID & the war? But are those enough to offset the previous underperformances?)